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Ahead of the wildfires that are currently burning in Southern California, Utah and Colorado, Harvard scientists predicted an increase in frequency of fires in the western United States due to global warming.
Atmospheric scientists at Harvard’s School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) said July 28 that as the climate warms in the next few decades, they expect a spike in the number of fires in the western United States. Specifically, they predict that the areas of wildfires in the West will increase as much as 50 percent by 2050 as a result of increasing temperatures. The scientists used a series of models to determine that Pacific Northwest and Rocky Mountain forests will see the greatest increase in areas burned.
SEAS scientists also said that air quality poses a serious risk. The additional fires will lead to an increase in organic carbon aerosols, a type of smoke particle, by about 40 percent, they said. Smoke from fires blazing north of Los Angeles this week has made its way to Colorado, according to several news sources. Temperatures in that area have been above 100°F for several days, according to the AP. Southern California air quality officials recorded dangerous air quality levels almost four times higher than the threshold action level, the Los Angeles Times reported Aug. 31.
SEAS Senior Research Fellow Jennifer Logan said, “Warmer temperatures can dry out underbrush, leading to a more serious conflagration once a fire is started by lightening or human activity. Because smoke and other particles from fires adversely affect air quality, an increase in wildfires could have large impacts on human health.”
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