Scientists are concerned about the contribution hydroflurocarbons (HFCs) will have to climate warming, especially given that in the next few decades developing countries are expected to use HFCs exponentially more than developed countries have to date. While HFCs do not deplete the ozone layer, they are greenhouse gases that contribute to radiative climate warming. A new study warns that the move away from ozone-depleting chemicals in the last 20 years to replacements that have a warming effect has implications for the future climate.
Researchers from The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory, the United States Environmental Protection Agency, DuPont Fluoroproducts and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency published a study in late June online with the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The study suggests that by 2050, developing countries’ use of HFCs could be 800 percent more than developed countries and will cause the climate to warm as much as would 5 to 9 billion tons of carbon dioxide.
The increased use in developing countries without new HFC regulations, like Asia, the researchers say, is in response to regulation of ozone-depleting gases under the 1987 Montreal Protocol and stems from demand for refrigeration, air conditioning and foam insulation. The use of HFCs has increased as replacements for chlorofluorocarbons in developed and developing countries due to phaseouts mandated by the Montreal Protocol. HFCs are regulated under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol as a greenhouse gas.
NOAA scientist David W. Fahey remarked that “HFCs are good for protecting the ozone layer, but they are not climate friendly.” The impact on the environment could be far worse than previously thought if nothing is done, he said. Though HFCs have a much smaller impact on climate change than carbon dioxide, the significant rise in use could hugely increase that impact, the study says. The scientists suggest that “[m]olecule for molecule, all HFCs are more potent warming agents than CO2 and some are thousands of times more effective.”
The study suggests HFCs' impact could be reduced by various limitations. A four percent annual reduction would cause HFC-induced climate warming to peak by 2040 and then begin to decrease before 2050, it says.
